Regular readers will know what I think of economic forecasting - it merely serves to make astrology respectable. You'd save a lot of money and get a better result by consulting Mystic Meg on next year's economic prospects. But some of it is downright fraudulent in which a desired outcome rather than a neutral methodology determines the forecast. The most shameless example in recent years has been Brexit Project Fear. We can safely ignore the prognostications of the banksters' economic whores (whose integrity is on a par with a judge in a Stalin court) who uniformly predicted the most terrible and immediate consequences of a pro-Brexit vote. And to an extent we could understand if not forgive the hysterics of David Cameron who went so far as to claim such a vote could lead to WW III.
But what of august institutions such as the Treasury and the Bank Of England who were duty bound to provide accurate and impartial advice on what was arguably the most important post-WW II political decision? Since the Brexit vote pay, employment and private expenditure are at record levels, and to the extent that people's lives have been changed it's for the better. Yet prior to the vote the Treasury thundered that a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth crashing between 3% and 6%. Unemployment would jump by 520,000 under the “cautious” projection and by 820,000 if the exit was on WTO terms. The Bank of England was even more negative, warning that economic growth could fall by 8 per cent.
These figures were so profoundly wrong as to suggest sabotage rather than incompetence. Although here's the explanation proffered by Andrew Haldane, Chief Economist at the BoE, who claimed their models ignored ‘irrational behaviour’ on the part of those pesky humans. How do you like that? Doesn't it smack of 'elect a new people'? Those responsible should at a minimum have been fired, possibly prosecuted. But they are still in place, unrepentant, no accountability whatsoever. For me it underlines yet another arena in which the country has been taken over by traitorous anti-British forces.